Risk Management in PPP Expressway Project in Vietnam: Ha Noi – Hai Phong Expressway Project Case Study

The rapid growth of Vietnam’s economy over the past few years contributes a significant strain on the country’s physical infrastructure. With economic development expected to continue at a rapid pace, pressures on roads, ports and other infrastructure systems will increase. Vietnam’s underlying concern for the last 10 years is a failure to develop infrastructure, which is now become a bottleneck of economic growth.

In next ten years 2010 to 2020, demands for infrastructure investment will increase by 10%, But how the Vietnam government can mobilize such huge capital shortfall for infrastructure investment, while state budget deficit stands at high level for a very long time and the public debt is in high level and in fast increasing trend (the economist newspapers at http://www.economist.com). With these problems, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) becomes the optimal solution to fill the shortfall of finance resource.

However, until now, there is still no legal concept of PPP or a separate law on PPP in Vietnam. The only current separated regulation for investment under BOT scheme (a kind of PPP model) is Circular No.108/ND-CP dated 27, November, 2009. The Vietnamese Government and relevant ministries recognize need to established PPP’s legal framework to raise capital from the private sector and from banks and credit institutions, regardless of whether they are under domestic or foreign. PPPs regulations, after one year of preparation by MPI and related ministries were issued on 15th November 2010 by Prime Minister.

Until now, there are only few researches have been conducted on risk management in PPP expressway project in Viet Nam. In order to help investors and policy makers to have a better perception on risk management in PPP expressway project in Vietnam, Mr. Vu Van Cao made a case study with the following objectives:

1. identify and assess the key risk in investment under PPP in Viet Nam;
2. how this key risk in investment under PPP in Vietnam are allocated in Ha Noi – Hai Phong expressway project through Project structure; and
3. recommendation for the Project Company to improve mitigation of critical Risk in Ha Noi – Hai Phong expresses way Project

Conclusion

Base on the results of analysis, it can be seen that risk allocation among related stakeholder is not so good and fair because Vietnamese government transfers all critical risks to Project Company and to road users which causes BOT project long period concession; and the Project Company have to take the financial burden leading to company bankruptcy.

Recommendations for Project Company (VIFIDI)

1. Establishing a specified team in charge to investigate the risks through BOT contract and to propose mitigation strategy;

2. Renegotiation with MOT on BOT contract provision on allocation of risks, which are assessed “cannot be accepted”;

3. Need to sharing risks, which are assessed “Accepted” with the third party;

4. Reevaluation of commercial viability of BOT project and recalculation of financial ratio of BOT project (ROE, NPV, and IRR) to reassess feasibility of the project; and

5. Propose to Government to give financial support to fund land acquisition and resettlement to reduce financial burden during construction period because (i) D/E ration level is too high 13.3) and can cause instability in financial situation when project comes into operation (recommended D/E ratio is 3 times following the PPP pilot regulations No. 71/2010/QD –TTg issued by Prime Minister on 9th November 2010); (ii) Concession period is too long (30.36 year) which causes long return for investors.

Recommendation for Ministry of Transportation (MOT) and GOV (Vietnam Government)

The Ha Noi – Hai Phong expressway is the first expressway project invested under BOT in Vietnam. The success of this project can be a good example to attract more private capital investment on expressway development under PPP model. Therefore, GOV and BOT must share the risks with project company and road user in order to help VIDIFI to implement the project successfully. Below are some recommendations for GOV and MOT to follow:

1. Most of the risks in Ha Noi – Hai Phong expressway project have been transferred to the road user and Project Company. It is proposed that the MOT and GOV fund to land acquisition and resettlement in order to reduce financial burden of Project Company and shorten the concession period;

2. GOV has to give Project company right to develop Land expressway to return their capital investment (profit from land development is expected 7.890 billion VND). Project Company needs more finance resources to fund land development project by itself. This causes unintentionally increasing financial burden on investors. Thus, instead of giving the Project Company the right to develop Land expressway to return capital investment, GOV should allow VIDIFI to increase toll rate of existing NHNo.5, and access to preferential loan with low interest rate and long payback period to reduce financial burden, shorten concession period and increasing feasibility of project.

Mr. Cao’s thesis abstract is copied and posted.

Abstract

Recent years in Vietnam, many Public Private Partnership (PPP) expressway projects have been being invested under PPP model. But the Risk management, which is critical factor of project success, is undervaluation by investors and policy maker. This project case study will contribute on increasing perception on risk management of the investors and policy makers in Vietnam. Project case study will indentify, classify and assess the risks in PPP expressway investment in Vietnam and specify the critical risks, for which the investors and policy makers must pay their attention. The investors and policy makers will understand how the above critical risks to be managed through case study of Ha Noi – Hai Phong expressway project. In the case study, the research will assess the risk allocation among three parties including investor (Project Company), public authorities and road users. The research will also propose recommendation for Project Company improving the risk management in case study.